In race to replace George Santos, NY's new vote by mail law faces an early test

A mid-February special election to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. George Santos is poised to be the first test of a new state law that will allow early voting by mail.

The option for New Yorkers is a major expansion of how voters can participate in a contest with national implications.

Special elections are traditionally low-turnout events in New York, but with Republicans holding a razor-thin majority in the House and with the balance of power looming large over next November’s election, the new early voting by mail measure could have Democrats and Republicans rethinking their campaign strategies, party officials say.

With the new law set to go into effect Jan.1, all registered voters will be able to apply to receive a ballot by mail without having to provide an excuse, which is still required when requesting an absentee ballot. The change could vastly change turnout calculations for the Feb. 13 special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District.

“I come from the fundamental notion that the more people vote, the better it is for a democracy,” said state Sen. Michael Gianaris, deputy majority leader and the author of the bill. “And there are some people, particularly Republicans, who have a problem with that approach because they actually desire for fewer people to vote.”

On the same day Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the bill into law in September, a dozen Republican plaintiffs led by Rep. Elise Stefanik filed a lawsuit in New York State Supreme Court, arguing it was unconstitutional.

GOP officials contend that Democrats, like Gianaris, are ignoring the will of New Yorkers who rejected a 2021 ballot measure that would have changed the state constitution to allow for no-excuse absentee ballots, a measure that would have functioned similarly to this new law.

Attorney Neil Murray, one of lawyers representing the GOP plaintiffs, said their lawsuit to prevent the law from taking effect next month takes on added significance with the special election to replace Santos on the horizon.

“That’s all the more reason for the court to make a decision as soon as possible because the stakes are high for everyone,” said Murray.

While the court has yet to issue a ruling, officials at both the New York City and Nassau County Boards of Elections said they are gearing up to implement the new process.

“The early vote by mail takes effect Jan. 1 and our portal will be live and ready to go for voters in accordance with the statute,” said Vincent Ignizio, the deputy executive director of the New York City Board of Elections.

James Schuerman, the Democratic commissioner for the Nassau County Board of Elections, said his agency was also ensuring their systems were ready to handle the likely increase in mail ballots for this special election.

“We’ve had a lot thrown at us as election agencies for these last few years, so we’ve become accustomed to implementing things on the fly and making sure things are done accurately in our election,” Schuerman told Gothamist.

Democrat Tom Suozzi’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment about how this new law might impact its get-out-the-vote strategies.

While the Nassau County GOP has yet to announce their candidate to run in the district, party spokesperson Mike Deery said communicating about the new law is part of their campaign plan.

“We will advise voters that they can cast ballots by mail in the special election pursuant to the state’s vote-by-mail law,” he said.

Voting advocates across the country are also watching how voter turnout might be impacted in the special election because of this new option to vote by mail.

“Who knows what the weather is going to be like? What is your job schedule going to be that day? Do you know where your polling place is?” said Barbara Smith Warner, the Oregon-based executive director of the National Vote at Home Institute, which works to expand access to voting by mail.

She said New York’s new law is about “centering the voter” and ensuring that life, especially in mid-winter, does not prevent someone from participating in the election.

Her organization has found that giving voters access to voting from home increases turnout. Smith Warner cited her home state of Oregon, which consistently outpaces New York in terms of voter participation.

Oregon uses a full mail vote system, where every registered voter is mailed a ballot without needing to even request one. During the 2022 election, 62% of Oregon voters turned out to cast a ballot compared to 42% in New York, according to the United States Election Assistance Commission.

Smith Warner said on top of increasing turnout, vote-by-mail laws give campaigns new opportunities to communicate with voters about the election, urging them to sign up for an early mail ballot and then reminding them to submit.

“When they get [voters] to sign up, [campaigns] can spend the whole time they have their ballot pinging them and urging them to return their ballot,” said Smith Warner. “It really makes a huge difference in how you can get out the vote.”